If we have a recession, how severe will it be? Kiplinger provides us with a new economic forecast. Investors hope the second half of 2022 won’t bring as many losses as the first. You can anticipate the probability of that happening with a look backwards, as summarized by MarketWatch. The week of July 4th is a good time to remember the financial advice of our founders. Their words still ring true, as Kiplinger reports.
Recession Next Year Is More Likely Than Not — The Federal Reserve’s mission to combat inflation by raising interest rates is likely to tip the economy into a mild and short recession sometime next year. The continuing high price of gasoline and energy in general because of the Ukraine war, and the continuing shortage of houses, cars and workers will also keep prices and wage rates high in general. That means interest rate hikes are likely to be large and persistent until the Fed observes a measurable slowdown in the economy, at least. Read more…
The Dow Just Booked Its Worst First Half Since 1962. What History Says About The Path Forward — Investors head into the second half of the year fearing aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks could tip the economy into recession. In a history of recessions, however, the Dow rallied in the second half of the year two-thirds of the time. Read more…
Financial Advice From America’s Founding Fathers — In honor of Independence Day, consider what the founders of the United States of America had to say on the subject of personal finance. As you’ll see, many of their ideas live on today. Read more…
John R. Day, Bill Ennis, and Matt Heller
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