Investors may be seeking new strategies after one of the market’s worst quarters. Before you do anything, Ben Carlson of MarketWatch suggests you look back to see what has happened in similar markets. But is this the beginning of a bear market? Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch doesn’t think so, and compares the onset of a bear market versus a correction. The Conference Board has released the Leading Economic Index for November, showing a slowdown. Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives reviews the numbers and offers analysis for the recession risk.
Here’s How The Stock Market Has Fared After Similarly Brutal Losses In A Quarter — There have been more than 370 quarterly returns since 1926. If the quarter were to end today, this would be the 14th worst in that time frame. Human nature makes it difficult for people to handle the types of losses we’ve experienced over the past few months. It invites overreactions and increased volatility of emotions. But history offers an encouraging lesson. The history of stock market performance shows that the longer you extend your time horizon, the higher the probability you have of seeing gains. Read more…
This Still Looks Like Just A Stock-Market Correction, Not Something Worse — The stock market’s recent correction has been more abrupt than you’d expect if the market were in the early stages of a major decline. One of the hallmarks of a major market top is that the bear market than ensues is relatively mild at the beginning, only building up a head of steam over several months. Corrections, in contrast, tend to be far sharper and more precipitous. Read more…
Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Pace Slowing in November — “The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread. Solid GDP growth at about 2.8 percent should continue in early 2019, but the LEI suggests the economy is likely to moderate further in the second half of 2019.” Read more…
John R. Day, Bill Ennis, Stephanie Hall, and Matt Heller
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