The latest issue of the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) Small Business Economic Trends came out yesterday. While it shows gains in March that reverse the losses of February, economic progress remains slow. Is this the “new normal”? Advisor Perspectives covers the story. Despite the naysayers, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller says we are years away from a recession. He explains his conviction with a simple chart. Investors who have been following the rates for treasuries have seen them drop from 3% at the beginning of the year to a range that hovers between 2.8% to 2.6%. Investment strategist Jeffrey Rosenberg offers a forecast for the remainder of 2014.

Small Business Sentiment Improved In March– The latest update for March from NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came in at 93.4, up 2 points from the previous month’s 91.4.  “While the Index still can’t seem to get above 95, we can be encouraged that the economy is at least crawling forward and not heading in reverse,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.

Robert Shiller: This Chart Shows Why The U.S. Is Years Away From Recession– Nobel laureate and Yale University economist Robert Shiller is in the camp of  experts who believe the odds of a recession are very low.  He explains his assertion with a chart showing that the average manufacturing workweek hit 42 hours in November and March. This level has not occurred since July 1945, and history shows that we’ve never been anywhere close to a recession when the workweek is this long.

10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 3.5% In 2014– After starting off the year at 3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield has spent the last two months in a tight range between 2.6 percent and 2.8 percent. But Jeffrey Rosenberg, chief investment strategist for fixed income at BlackRock, says that yield could rise to 3.5 percent this year.

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John R. Day, Bill Ennis, Stephanie Davidson and Matt Heller

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