Is the U.S. economy slowing? The latest numbers for the Leading Economic Index have been released, leaving analysts wondering about the possibility of slower growth. Doug Short provides graphics that tell the story. For the near future, inflation seems to be totally out of the picture. As the price of oil dropped from $100 a barrel last July to its current level of about $50, businesses outside the energy sector have benefited and prices have fallen. If you’d like to know what the odds are of specific political or economic events that may affect the markets, look no further. Political strategist Greg Valliere of the Potomac Research Group has calculated what he believes the chances are. Reacting to missed opportunities in the markets, however, can lead to buying high and selling low. Beware of investor regret, says an expert on behavioral finance.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Growth Moderates– “The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased again in January, but its pace of growth has moderated in recent months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “While the LEI suggests a positive short – term outlook in 2015, the lack of strong momentum in residential construction, along with a weak outlook for new orders in manufacturing, poses a downside risk for the U.S. economy.” Read more…
U.S. Reports Record Decline In Producer Prices– The U.S. producer price index declined a seasonally adjusted and record-high 0.8% last month, according to the Labor Department. Lower oil prices were the biggest factor, but even if energy costs are excluded, data show that inflationary forces have disappeared from the economy. Read more…
What Are The Chances?- Greg Valliere of the Potomac Research Group has updated his monthly odds on significant political, geopolitical, economic and potentially market moving events – what is still possible and what is unlikely to happen? The Potomac Research Group is an independent research firm that provides Washington policy analysis for the clients of firms such as Charles Schwab & Co. Read more…
Pay Attention To The Emotion Of Regret– When investors feel the pain of lost opportunities in the markets, they will often act in ways that will ultimately cost them further. This is why many investors, having seen an investment rise in value, seek to buy that investment after it’s had its run, according to Daniel Kahneman, author of the bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow. Read more…
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John R. Day, Bill Ennis, Stephanie Davidson and Matt Heller